Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182020 201001 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    119.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  18.0  14.7   9.8  11.5  16.5  26.8  32.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  14.0  14.0  13.0   7.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.3  72.0  72.0  67.3  48.5  31.1  20.8  12.9  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0  78.0  41.0  37.0  33.0  15.0   9.0  -6.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  66.0  65.0  55.0  49.0  42.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -8.0  -6.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   4.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       70.1%       38.7%       54.4%
 25kt / 24h       61.1%       70.7%       65.9%
 30kt / 24h       61.0%       70.7%       65.9%
 35kt / 24h       61.0%       70.7%       65.9%
 40kt / 24h       61.0%       68.7%       64.9%
 45kt / 36h       64.4%       50.4%       57.4%
 55kt / 36h       25.2%       38.7%       31.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%