Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182020 201001 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    120.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     89.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  16.9  15.0  10.8  15.0  21.3  28.6  33.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  15.0  14.0  12.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.3  74.3  69.6  65.1  44.8  34.3  23.6  15.4  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  23.0  29.0  33.0  43.0  17.0  23.0 -15.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  66.0  62.0  53.0  49.0  40.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -9.0  -5.0  -5.0   1.0   0.0   4.0   9.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       43.3%       25.7%       34.5%
 25kt / 24h       43.7%       55.3%       49.5%
 30kt / 24h       34.3%       55.3%       44.8%
 35kt / 24h       34.3%       55.3%       44.8%
 40kt / 24h       34.3%       49.5%       41.9%
 45kt / 36h       43.5%       31.1%       37.3%
 55kt / 36h       12.8%       19.6%       16.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%