Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182020 201002 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    121.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  14.9  10.4  11.0  16.6  26.7  32.6  34.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  14.0  12.0  10.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.3  54.6  50.1  39.4  22.7  10.0   0.4  -2.1  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  37.0  47.0  52.0  27.0  38.0   0.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  63.0  60.0  52.0  46.0  42.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  -6.0  -1.0   0.0   5.0   3.0  12.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       52.5%       25.3%       38.9%
 25kt / 24h       37.5%       39.7%       38.6%
 30kt / 24h       29.7%       39.7%       34.7%
 35kt / 24h       27.8%       39.7%       33.8%
 40kt / 24h       26.7%       31.7%       29.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%