Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182020 201002 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    122.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  12.6  11.1  15.6  22.8  31.5  37.3  44.5  F  F  F  F  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  12.0  10.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.6  37.9  29.4  19.8   4.6  -7.0 -13.3 -19.1  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  85.0  69.0  69.0   1.0  32.0   2.0  13.0  N  F  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  60.0  54.0  49.0  43.0  39.0  40.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  10.0   6.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       51.8%       19.5%       35.6%
 25kt / 24h       23.6%       20.8%       22.2%
 30kt / 24h       18.8%        7.6%       13.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%