Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182020 201002 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    123.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     91.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.4  10.4  13.2  16.8  28.1  33.5  34.8  44.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   8.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.1  31.5  21.6  14.4  -1.4  -9.6 -15.7 -19.1  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  64.0  42.0   9.0  31.0  -4.0  17.0   1.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  55.0  53.0  46.0  43.0  41.0  39.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.6%       11.5%       17.6%
 25kt / 24h        9.1%        9.9%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%