Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182020 201002 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    124.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     90.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.1  14.4  17.9  22.2  30.6  33.1  38.0  43.5  F  F  F  N  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         33.6  25.5  16.2   7.7  -2.8 -10.8 -14.5 -18.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  52.0  15.0   0.0  25.0   8.0  14.0  10.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  57.0  55.0  51.0  45.0  41.0  40.0  39.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.7%        3.6%        5.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons