Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182020 201003 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     65.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  14.9  19.4  26.3  33.8  34.8  43.7  48.7  F  F  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         28.5  21.2  12.7   6.5  -3.3  -7.1 -11.8 -17.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  32.0  14.0  29.0   5.0  13.0  11.0   6.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  52.0  49.0  47.0  44.0  41.0  39.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   4.0  11.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        0.0%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons