Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182020 201004 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    129.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  38.3  41.5  44.5  50.1  50.8  62.2  49.5  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         32.9  30.5  28.2  24.8  19.7  16.8  15.9  15.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0   4.0   5.0  29.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  43.0  43.0  42.0  40.0  38.0  37.0  32.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   9.0   6.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons