Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201005 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    105.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  17.0  18.2  19.7  19.8  18.6  12.7  15.7  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  27.0  25.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  54.0  41.0  36.0   3.0 -22.0 -25.0 -34.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  53.0  57.0  59.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        2.1%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%       20.1%       12.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        7.9%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        7.9%        4.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        7.9%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h        4.2%       25.7%       15.0%
 55kt / 36h        2.0%       10.3%        6.2%
 55kt / 48h        7.9%       15.9%       11.9%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        9.8%        6.5%
 65kt / 72h       10.7%       22.0%       16.3%