Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201006 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    105.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  18.3  19.5  19.0  21.0  17.6  17.9  17.2  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  25.0  25.0  24.0  24.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  43.0  57.0  49.0   1.0  18.0   0.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  58.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  56.0  63.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        2.2%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        5.2%       21.4%       13.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        8.9%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        8.9%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        8.6%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%       25.6%       14.4%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%       10.4%        6.0%
 55kt / 48h        7.2%       16.6%       11.9%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%       10.3%        6.8%
 65kt / 72h       12.4%       22.6%       17.5%