Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201006 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    106.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  19.6  17.4  18.2  20.4  18.4  15.5  20.1  N  N  F  F  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  44.0  46.0  21.0  -3.0  -6.0 -13.0 -16.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  54.0  57.0  60.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.9%        8.4%        7.1%
 25kt / 24h       18.9%       42.7%       30.8%
 30kt / 24h       11.8%       28.3%       20.1%
 35kt / 24h       10.2%       28.3%       19.3%
 40kt / 24h       10.2%       28.3%       19.3%
 45kt / 36h       12.3%       45.1%       28.7%
 55kt / 36h        7.1%       25.9%       16.5%
 55kt / 48h       10.2%       24.2%       17.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.2%       17.3%       10.7%
 65kt / 72h        6.6%       23.1%       14.9%