Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201006 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    106.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  17.0  16.7  18.4  20.5  19.3  20.0  23.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  20.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  22.0  22.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  36.0  28.0  19.0  -6.0  -1.0   0.0 -47.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        5.1%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h       10.7%       31.3%       21.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.4%       18.0%       12.2%
 35kt / 24h        6.4%       18.0%       12.2%
 40kt / 24h        6.4%       18.0%       12.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.6%       31.0%       19.3%
 55kt / 36h        4.1%       14.2%        9.1%
 55kt / 48h        7.3%       17.5%       12.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        9.7%        6.0%
 65kt / 72h        5.2%       13.9%        9.5%