Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201006 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    106.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  16.1  19.0  19.3  21.4  21.8  24.8  19.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  21.0  22.0  22.0  23.0  23.0  21.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  18.0   9.0 -22.0 -26.0 -26.0 -31.0  -4.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        4.9%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h        8.4%       24.0%       16.2%
 30kt / 24h        6.0%       14.9%       10.5%
 35kt / 24h        5.7%       14.9%       10.3%
 40kt / 24h        5.7%       14.9%       10.3%
 45kt / 36h        5.9%       19.1%       12.5%
 55kt / 36h        3.3%        7.8%        5.6%
 55kt / 48h        3.8%       10.9%        7.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        4.7%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%        7.2%        4.6%