Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201007 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    106.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  18.8  17.5  19.6  21.7  23.7  23.1  18.5  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  20.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0   4.0  -9.0  -5.0 -18.0 -17.0   0.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  52.0  54.0  52.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        3.1%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%       15.7%       10.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.3%        9.0%        6.7%
 35kt / 24h        4.3%        9.0%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%        9.0%        6.7%
 45kt / 36h        4.8%       11.9%        8.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.7%        4.0%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        7.0%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        2.7%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.6%        5.4%        4.0%