Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201007 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  16.4  17.6  19.9  20.7  19.6  15.3  18.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  19.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  -7.0 -34.0 -26.0  -4.0  -1.0 -24.0   3.0  U  U VU VU  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  54.0  53.0  57.0  58.0  55.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        5.3%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.6%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        4.0%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        4.1%        5.1%        4.6%