Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201007 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  16.5  16.8  19.6  21.0  18.0  16.5  16.4  F  F  F  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  17.0  17.0  16.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0  -6.0  -9.0 -13.0  18.0  -6.0  40.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  53.0  56.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%       11.2%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        4.2%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        4.2%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        4.1%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%       11.3%        6.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        3.5%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.6%        8.2%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        3.1%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        5.7%       10.2%        8.0%