Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201007 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  16.5  18.6  20.3  23.4  20.7  19.0  15.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  17.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -22.0 -15.0   5.0  12.0  20.0  12.0  51.0  52.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  58.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  63.0  61.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        9.8%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.9%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        3.7%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        3.7%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%        9.9%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        2.6%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        2.3%        5.9%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        2.4%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        5.7%        8.5%        7.1%