Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201008 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    106.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  18.3  19.8  21.1  22.3  21.2  18.3  14.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  19.0  19.0  20.0  21.0  19.0  16.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -19.0   5.0   0.0 -15.0   0.0  24.0  18.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  60.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        5.2%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        5.6%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        3.8%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        4.5%        7.2%        5.9%