Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201008 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    106.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  25.1  22.3  21.7  25.8  22.5  20.6  14.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  21.0  19.0  19.0  17.0  15.0  15.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  28.0 -19.0 -14.0  18.0  37.0  48.0  48.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        8.2%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.5%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.2%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.2%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%       11.5%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        3.3%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        5.8%        3.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        3.5%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        4.8%       12.7%        8.8%