Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201009 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    106.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  25.1  23.4  22.0  22.1  20.9  18.2  13.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  20.0  19.0  18.0  16.0  16.0  17.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0   8.0  21.0  27.0  24.0  61.0  54.0  51.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  66.0  65.0  67.0  69.0  71.0  71.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        9.3%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.6%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.5%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.4%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%       13.9%        7.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        3.9%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        7.4%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        4.8%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        6.2%       16.7%       11.5%