Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201009 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    105.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  22.3  22.2  24.8  22.9  22.5  17.4  11.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  20.0  18.0  17.0  16.0  16.0  17.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  30.0  23.0   8.0  52.0  58.0  79.0  46.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  66.0  69.0  69.0  72.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.6%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        8.5%        4.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        4.6%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        2.7%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        7.6%       12.8%       10.2%