Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201009 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    106.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  21.9  25.2  24.6  19.7  19.5  13.2  13.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  17.0  15.0  15.0  14.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  25.0   9.0  29.0  65.0  66.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  71.0  72.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%       10.4%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        3.2%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        3.2%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.8%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%       17.2%        9.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        5.5%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.8%        9.9%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        6.7%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h        7.1%       22.2%       14.6%