Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201009 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    106.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  26.9  26.3  22.2  21.6  13.7  11.6  11.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  16.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  19.0  35.0  55.0  82.0  52.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  72.0  71.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%       12.2%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        4.1%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        4.1%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.3%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%       19.7%       10.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        6.9%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%       13.3%        8.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        9.4%        5.2%
 65kt / 72h        9.0%       28.7%       18.8%