Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201010 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    106.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  23.6  23.0  22.9  21.3  13.7  13.7  13.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  47.0  60.0  66.0  81.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  68.0  72.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        7.1%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.0%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.0%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%       11.3%        6.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        3.1%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        5.7%        8.9%        7.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        5.6%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h       14.3%       21.5%       17.9%