Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201011 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    108.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  22.2  19.9  22.9  21.7  24.1  35.4  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  25.0  26.0  25.0  22.0  14.0   4.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        139.3 137.0 137.0 137.0 134.6 125.7  93.0  73.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  44.0  27.0  15.0  32.0   7.0  20.0  10.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   6.0  11.0  11.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        2.3%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%       21.5%       13.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        8.4%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        8.4%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        7.1%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%       32.8%       17.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%       14.7%        8.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%       10.8%        7.9%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%        9.6%        5.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        3.8%        2.2%