Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201011 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    108.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  20.4  24.3  26.0  30.5  41.0  38.4  36.0  N  N  N  N  N VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  29.0  29.0  28.0  23.0   9.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.6 127.3 125.1 122.9 112.4  88.0  65.9  57.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  31.0  17.0  11.0  -2.0   5.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  51.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   4.0   9.0  15.0  18.0   5.0  11.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        4.8%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        8.0%       24.5%       16.2%
 30kt / 24h        3.5%       10.5%        7.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%       10.5%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        8.8%        5.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%       27.6%       15.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%       12.3%        7.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        1.1%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        3.6%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%