Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201013 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    110.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  19.8  19.3  21.1  31.7  26.0  33.2  36.1  F  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  15.0  11.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 134.3 118.6  94.3  64.8  49.2  44.1  42.1  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  -9.0 -10.0  29.0  -1.0   9.0  23.0  -1.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  50.0  51.0  47.0  39.0  33.0  30.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   9.0  13.0  14.0   7.0   1.0   6.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        2.1%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        7.4%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.5%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.1%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.4%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%