Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201014 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    112.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  24.1  26.5  30.5  26.3  34.0  34.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.0  80.0  67.9  60.9  54.7  48.3  48.3  48.3  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0 -25.0  -6.0  -8.0 -28.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  U VU  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  50.0  47.0  40.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  16.0  17.0  11.0   2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0 VU  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons