Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201014 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60    113.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  25.9  28.0  27.5  31.3  32.5  32.5  32.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  66.7  60.9  55.7  49.1  43.4  43.4  43.4  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0 -15.0  -2.0   8.0  17.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  49.0  46.0  41.0  35.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  17.0  11.0  11.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons