Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192020 201014 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  27.4  27.9  29.0  34.4  34.4  34.4  34.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.5  59.8  56.7  52.8  48.3  48.3  48.3  48.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -27.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  46.0  42.0  39.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.0  12.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 VU  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons