Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202020 201103 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    115.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  24.1  22.6  33.7  56.7  51.5  49.7  48.3  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   8.0   5.0   5.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 127.0 122.3 111.5  99.8  99.8  98.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   105.0  82.0  85.0  71.0  32.0  -1.0  -6.0  -7.0  F  N  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  56.0  50.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -1.0   2.0  14.0  13.0   4.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        2.9%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        7.6%       19.0%       13.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%        7.4%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%        7.4%        4.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        7.4%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        8.5%        4.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%