Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202020 201104 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    118.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  34.5  46.2  53.6  49.8  48.9  47.7  52.5  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 122.3 117.9 113.6 101.6  98.0 101.6 111.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0  70.0  78.0  54.0   9.0 -12.0 -15.0  -9.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  55.0  46.0  41.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   9.0   7.0  13.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.4%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%