Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202020 201104 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    118.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.2  49.2  54.3  52.2  48.1  48.8  50.5  55.4  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 115.7 109.4 101.6  96.2  98.0 101.6 113.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  84.0  61.0  41.0 -24.0  -4.0 -17.0   0.0  N  N  N  N VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  62.0  57.0  50.0  41.0  38.0  38.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   8.0  14.0  11.0   8.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%