Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202020 201104 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    120.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.3  55.9  51.7  49.6  53.4  51.5  57.8  57.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.5  98.5  94.8  91.2  89.4  93.0 102.4 115.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  53.0  55.0  42.0  -5.0  -3.0 -12.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  55.0  52.0  44.0  38.0  38.0  37.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  18.0  11.0  15.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  U VU  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons