Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202020 201105 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    121.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        55.3  53.2  51.6  50.2  55.0  55.7  61.5  63.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.5  94.8  91.2  87.7  89.4  96.6 106.5 117.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  38.0  13.0 -33.0  -2.0   7.0  12.0 -10.0  N  N  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  55.0  51.0  49.0  41.0  36.0  35.0  35.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  14.0  16.0   8.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons