Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202020 201105 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    121.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.9  49.8  49.3  50.2  54.1  58.5  58.9  60.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.5  89.8  89.8  88.0  91.6  99.4 110.1 119.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  11.0 -28.0  -3.0  -6.0  14.0   6.0 -16.0  N  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  49.0  49.0  44.0  38.0  37.0  35.0  36.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  12.0   6.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons