Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202020 201105 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    122.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.9  51.0  51.0  52.7  55.3  58.8  62.6  56.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.6  88.0  89.8  89.8  95.5 101.5 114.6 119.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0 -35.0 -21.0 -14.0  -9.0  15.0 -24.0  -2.0  U VU VU  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  43.0  41.0  37.0  35.0  34.0  35.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0   9.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   4.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons