Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212020 201117 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    112.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6  15.5  17.0  21.4  33.7  33.0  34.6  32.7  F  F  F  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  18.0   8.0   4.0   1.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 125.1 112.4 103.0  92.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  27.0  21.0 -15.0 -16.0 -72.0  -9.0 -22.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  49.0  45.0  43.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   5.0  14.0  11.0   9.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        4.6%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h        6.0%       26.9%       16.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%       13.3%        8.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%       13.3%        7.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       13.3%        7.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       23.3%       12.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        9.6%        5.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        4.3%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.9%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%