Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212020 201118 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    113.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  20.0  22.2  27.9  30.2  25.2  23.6  23.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0   9.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 125.1 122.9 118.6 118.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  30.0   1.0  -3.0 -58.0 -57.0 -23.0 -23.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  50.0  45.0  44.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   6.0   4.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.7%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.8%       14.8%        8.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        6.0%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        6.0%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        6.0%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%       12.2%        6.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        4.1%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        3.4%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        3.3%        1.8%