Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212020 201118 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    114.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  22.6  25.3  28.8  30.2  27.5  20.7  20.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   5.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 134.3 127.3 125.1 120.7 118.6 118.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0 -23.0  -9.0 -14.0 -82.0 -29.0 -14.0 -14.0  U VU  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  46.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   5.0   7.0   4.0   5.0   9.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.2%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        4.8%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%