Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212020 201118 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    115.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  30.7  31.0  30.8  27.3  24.1  19.8  19.8  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 124.3 119.6 115.1 115.1 110.7 108.6 108.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0  -3.0  -6.0 -43.0 -49.0 -27.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  53.0  51.0  46.0  45.0  44.0  44.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   6.0  15.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        3.3%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%       11.3%        6.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        4.4%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        4.4%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%        4.2%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        9.4%        4.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%