Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212020 201118 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    116.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  31.5  30.8  29.0  28.3  21.4  22.2  22.2  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.3 119.6 115.1 117.3 115.1 110.7 102.4 102.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  -9.0 -34.0 -80.0 -36.0  -9.0  -6.0  -6.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  49.0  46.0  43.0  42.0  44.0  44.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   6.0   6.0   7.0  12.0  17.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.1%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.3%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        3.5%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%