Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212020 201119 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    117.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  31.7  29.0  27.6  24.1  19.3  19.3  19.3  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.3 112.9 115.1 112.9 108.6 102.4 102.4 102.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0 -37.0 -63.0 -47.0 -19.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  49.0  45.0  44.0  44.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   9.0   7.0   4.0   9.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%