Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212020 201119 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    118.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  29.9  30.4  28.3  22.2  23.9  23.9  23.9  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.9 117.9 117.9 117.9 111.5 107.4 107.4 107.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -36.0 -53.0 -54.0 -33.0   0.0 -21.0 -21.0 -21.0 VU VU VU VU  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  45.0  43.0  43.0  42.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   8.0   6.0   6.0  15.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  U  U  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%