Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212020 201119 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  31.9  29.5  24.1  20.0  25.7  25.7  25.7  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 125.1 122.9 120.7 118.6 120.7 120.7 120.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -45.0 -47.0 -34.0 -52.0 -12.0 -21.0 -21.0 -21.0 VU VU VU VU  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  44.0  43.0  44.0  43.0  41.0  41.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   6.0   5.0   8.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  U  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%