Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012020 200517 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.90     86.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     86.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  21.3  22.4  28.7  33.6  36.9  37.0  40.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   86.0  86.0  89.0  93.0  99.0 103.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   146.0  81.0  81.0  76.0  67.0  32.0  25.0  14.0 VF  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  63.0  65.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.5  21.3  22.4  28.7  33.6  36.9  37.0  40.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       62.3%       39.4%       50.9%
 25kt / 24h       78.4%       80.0%       79.2%
 30kt / 24h       70.9%       76.3%       73.6%
 35kt / 24h       68.0%       76.3%       72.1%
 40kt / 24h       41.1%       67.3%       54.2%
 45kt / 36h       47.5%       62.4%       54.9%
 55kt / 36h       29.9%       43.7%       36.8%
 55kt / 48h       30.6%       30.2%       30.4%
 70kt / 48h       16.4%       10.5%       13.4%
 65kt / 72h       16.2%        5.0%       10.6%