Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012020 200517 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00     86.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  24.3  33.4  35.7  37.8  39.4  41.7  42.9  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0  99.0 101.0 101.0 103.0 107.0 110.0 110.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  73.0  81.0  20.0  39.0   2.0  47.0  41.0  F  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  66.0  66.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.3  24.3  33.4  35.7  37.8  39.4  41.7  42.9  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       74.7%       47.6%       61.1%
 25kt / 24h       71.1%       68.9%       70.0%
 30kt / 24h       70.6%       65.1%       67.8%
 35kt / 24h       69.8%       65.1%       67.5%
 40kt / 24h       46.3%       60.3%       53.3%
 45kt / 36h       40.3%       30.6%       35.4%
 55kt / 36h       24.3%       14.5%       19.4%
 55kt / 48h       16.7%       13.9%       15.3%
 70kt / 48h        7.3%        2.2%        4.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        0.9%        1.5%