Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012020 200518 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00     86.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    55.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.0  34.8  37.0  40.9  43.0  48.6  43.1  44.1  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   94.0  95.0  97.0 102.0 107.0 103.0  84.0  43.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  48.0  50.0  35.0  34.0  26.0  19.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  63.0  62.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.0  34.8  37.0  40.9  43.0  48.6  43.1  44.1  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       39.4%        6.7%       23.1%
 25kt / 24h       11.5%        5.3%        8.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%