Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012020 200518 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50     86.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     94.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.5  36.5  39.4  42.7  50.0  41.2  40.9  40.8  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  22.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  50.0  35.0  34.0  25.0  19.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  64.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.5  36.5  39.4  42.7  50.0  41.2  40.9  40.8  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.6%        0.0%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%