Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012020 200518 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80     86.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     96.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.1  38.5  41.8  43.0  37.8  40.3  42.6  42.9  U  U VU VU  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0   6.0   3.0  -9.0 -28.0 -11.0   2.0  14.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.1  38.5  41.8  43.0  37.8  40.3  42.6  42.9  U  U VU VU  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%